We are seeing more of a return to a seasonal market in Wine Country with sales falling on a month over month basis. They still remain relatively high to a year ago. Inventory is starting to more closely mirror inventory from a year ago. Two things jump out to me from last month’s data: 1. Median Days on Market has dropped considerably – from 28 percent to 42 percent across our region. 2. The Unsold Inventory Index ranges from 1.6 to 2.4 months across our region. This is down from 45 percent to 77 percent on a year over year basis. Prices continue the high levels achieved this summer and we will see 10 percent or more price appreciation in Wine Country for 2020. With new “Shelter in Place Orders” real estate remains an “essential business” and we continue to help buyers and sellers. We still have no Open Houses and showings are by appointment only with strict cleaning protocols between showings.
For the past few months I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio.” Across the country, one might expect that 30 to 35 percent of the homes put into the MLS to sell will have a price reduction before they eventually sell. For November 2020, of all closed homes in Sonoma County, 20 percent had price reductions before selling. In Napa, the ratio was 19 percent and in Mendocino County it was 22 percent. Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price was 49 percent in Sonoma County, 46 percent in Napa County and 39 percent in Mendocino County. In all markets, the Price Reduction Ratio is trending down and the Selling Price in Excess of Original List Price is trending up.
Mendocino County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of November stood at 139. This is 52 percent below the inventory in November 2019 (291) and it is 8 percent below the inventory last month (150). New sales (74) in Mendocino County in November were 106 percent ahead of the pace of November 2019 (36) and they were 9 percent below the pace last month (81). There now is a 1.9 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace. The average Days on Market for the 70 homes sold in Mendocino County in November is 70 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the homes closed in November in Mendocino County was $492,000. This is 23 percent ahead of the median price in November 2019 ($401,000). Mendocino County homes seem to be in high demand with prices rising quickly.
Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Ukiah is 30 homes. This is 30 percent below the level of November 2019 (43) and it is 12 percent below the inventory last month (34). There were 26 new sales for the month of November. This is 100 percent above the number of sales in November 2019 (13) and it is 63 percent above the sales last month (16). There is now 1.2 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 20 closings last month was 52 days. The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $490,000. The median price was $505,000 for the homes that closed in November – setting a new high.
Hopland and Talmage: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Hopland and Talmage was 13 homes. This is equal to the inventory of November 2019 (13) and it is 30 percent ahead of the inventory last month (10). There were two new sales for the month of November. This compares to one sale in November 2019 and three new sales last month. There is a 6.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Three homes closed in November in Hopland/Talmage with a Days on Market period of 65 days.
Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Redwood Valley and Calpella was 11 homes. This is 31 percent below the level of November 2019 (16) and it is equal to the inventory last month (11). There were two new sales for the month of November. This compares to three sales in November 2019 and five new sales last month. There is a 5.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000. The median selling price of the 10 homes that closed in November was $616,000.
For additional information, contact Gerrett Snedaker at 707-939-2009 or [email protected].
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