According to the 2019 Airbus Global Market
Forecast (GMF), the fleet size of operators from all regions
serving the UAE will nearly treble to some 1,730 aircraft by 2038
from around 630 today.
This includes 750 Small category aircraft like
the A320 and A321, and 980 Medium and Large aircraft like the
A330neo and A350 serving the UAE market in the next two decades.
UAE O&D passenger traffic is forecast to
grow 5.8% per annum over the next 20 years.
In the wider Middle East region, air passenger
traffic is forecast to grow at a rate of 5.6% per year, which is
well above the global average of 4.3% per annum.
Over the same
period, global freight traffic is expected to see an annual increase of 3.6%
in line with the average global freight traffic growth. This would
stimulate a requirement for some 3,200 aircraft out of a global
requirement of 39,210 new passenger and freight aircraft.
Today, five of the world’s aviation mega cities
are in the Middle East, with two, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, within the
UAE. These will more than double to eleven over the next 20 years,
to include such cities as Muscat and Kuwait.
Tourism will continue to be a key growth sector
for the Middle East with commercial aviation a key enabler, with
figures from the World Travel and Tourism Council indicating that
tourism’s contribution to Middle Eastern GDP is nearly 9% today.
As the aviation network and traffic continues to
develop in the Middle Eastern region, Airbus forecasts a need for
more than 50,000 new pilots and nearly 52,000 new technicians over
the next 20 years.
The commercial aviation services market as a
whole is valued at some US$515 billion over the next 20 years in the
region, principally in services optimising and maintaining
aircraft availability such as maintenance, material management,
technicians training and system upgrades, followed by flight
operations services including pilot training or Air Traffic
Management solutions, and finally passenger services like cabin
upgrades, connectivity and ticketing.
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